The FBI will now begin the 7th investigation into Bret Kavanaugh amid accusations of sexual assaults. Senator Jeff Flake was the only Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee to back the move.
Most FBI background checks cover only the last 7 to 10 years. This particular investigation will take into account accusations from 36 years ago. The FBI can question Dr. Ford, Mark Judge, and any other witnesses.
There are two basic aspects that nullify the investigation before it even begins.
The first aspect is the timeframe. The FBI investigation must end within a week. 7 days is no way near enough time to prove a sexual assault that happened 36 years ago. Dr. Ford did not remember the date and location of the assault. Neither of them is irrelevant. If the presumption of innocence still holds true, the Senate would need to know the location and the date of the assault. Just probing into those 2 things could take a whole week.
Secondly, Mark Judge is the only witness to the assault. He has already said that he has no recollection of such an incident. That just means ‘I say it didn’t happen unless you uncover something that proves that it did’. To uncover such a thing might also take the FBI more than a week.
In short, the chances that the FBI probe would come up with anything substantial are very low. Thus unless there is a miracle, the FBI probe won’t uncover any dirt on Kavanaugh.
This means that Kavanaugh is more likely to get the flip votes. If the 7-day FBI investigation turns up nothing, Senators Collins, Manchin, and Murkowski will vote yes since they lose all reasons to vote no.
Thus, the FBI probe helps Kavanaugh rather than hurt him. Because the FBI has a weak mandate, it is unlikely to hamper Kavanaugh’s nomination even if Dr. Ford’s accusations are true.
If Dems wanted to stop his appointment, they should have voted while the cloud of accusation was hanging over his head. If the FBI probe proves nothing, even Dems will not have a reason to vote against Kavanaugh.
They will still vote against him for politics’ sake.
Personally, I do believe Dr. Ford. I think she is telling the truth. She doesn’t strike me as someone who lies or enjoys the media spotlight. I just think that there are more potent ways to judge SCOTUS nominees than how they behaved at a drunken high school party.